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Are You Scared of Your Next Decision?

Scared of Your Next Decision?

Edvard Munch (1893): The Scream. Oil, tempera & pastel on cardboard. [Image rights in the public domain.]

Tonight will be a scary night for the bravest of us, with countless children roaming the streets, high on sugar, threatening to knock on our very doors.

However, even today, our most crippling fears probably come from within. Are you scared of your next decision? Afraid of making the wrong choice? Funnily enough, while dogs and – some say – children can smell our fear; on our own we’re not always very good at recognizing when and why we’re scared.

Here’s how you can recognize whether your decision scares you:

  • You avoid making the decision altogether, for example by procrastinating or by shifting the responsibility to others.
  • You get overly emotional about your decision. Maybe you get angry or burst into tears when others are bringing up uncomfortable truths about your situation? Such emotional outbursts are effective ways of shutting down a conversation, and they can be warning signs that your fears are holding you back from thinking and acting in the best way.
  • You keep investing into previous mistakes. This is also known as “escalating commitment”. When coping with poor outcomes of our previous choices, it is tempting to dig in our heels and devote even more resources to our current path, in the hope of somehow making it work. But sometimes, making the best decision for the future requires that we admit having made a mistake in the past. This is not easy: even admitting mistakes just to ourselves takes a lot of courage, but it can open the door to a new and better direction.

If any of these points ring true, take it as a warning sign that you might need more courage to approach your decision.

How to become a braver decision maker

The simplest way to get more courage is to take responsibility for your decision process, even if the outcomes are not all in your control. Follow a decision process that is in line with your values. Without being able to predict the future, we will never have a guarantee that good decisions will lead to good consequences, but there is plenty of evidence showing that a good decision process is indeed more likely to result in better outcomes. Since you will make many decisions over your lifetime, you can therefore be assured that if you follow a good decision process throughout your life, your decision outcomes will be better overall.

Four steps to tackle your decisions fearlessly:

1) Commit to a value-driven rational decision process. This does not guarantee good outcomes, but it does make them more likely.

2) Ask yourself: Which of my values matter for this decision? In other words, what are my personal criteria as to whether the outcome will be “good” or “bad”?

3) Think: What can I do that best fulfills all those values? (Think beyond your initial ideas. If necessary, use tools/visuals/charts etc to evaluate your options – I’m not getting started on all this here, but you know who to ask if you want to know more about creative thinking and evaluating options.)

4) Act. Knowing that you’ve made the best decision you possibly could have with your current knowledge – a decision that is based on your values, rather than on fear – will empower you to act with confidence.

by Ursina Teuscher (PhD), at Teuscher Decision Coaching, Portland OR


Selected References:
Anderson, B., Hahn, D., & Teuscher, U. (2013). Heart and Mind: Mastering the Art of Decision Making. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.
Aschenbrenner, K. M., Jaus, D., & Villani, C. (1980). Hierarchical goal structuring and pupils’ job choices: testing a decision aid in the field. Acta Psychologica, 45, 35–49.
Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(5), 938–956.
Dean, J. W., & Sharfman, M. P. (1996). Does Decision Process Matter? A Study of Strategic Decision-Making Effectiveness. The Academy of Management Journal, 39(2), 368–396.
Herek, G. M., Janis, I. L., & Huth, P. (1989). Quality of U.S. Decision Making during the Cuban Missile Crisis: Major Errors in Welch’s Reassessment. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33(3), 446–459.
Keeney, R. L. (1996). Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making. Harvard University Press.

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Decision Trees Made Easy

Decision Tree for a 10-Year Old

This may well be the most unusual article I’ve ever come across in any peer-reviewed journal (it was published in an open access journal, so you can get the full text pdf here):

Mullin, Barbara & Roger, commented by Jack Dowie and Rex V. Brown.
Mhairi’s Dilemma: A study of decision analysis at work.
Judgment and Decision Making, 3, (8) (2008), 679–689.

It’s a case description of how a dad (Roger Mullin, a teacher of decision support systems) used a decision tree to help his 10-year old daughter, Mhairi, make a very difficult emotional decision: she had to decide whether to attend a dear friend’s funeral or not.

Decision trees are, in my own experience, one of the hardest tools to teach, as powerful as they are. They involve calculations with probabilities, which people are notoriously bad at – even people much older and more educated than the child in this case. Accordingly, they are not used that often, even by professionals. As Mullin states himself: “For over 20 years of teaching decision making, I have been struck by how resistant many professionals are to analytical approaches. A common complaint, whether from medical practitioners, social workers, police officers, business executives or other well educated groups, is that it is too difficult for their clients or even colleagues to understand and far too difficult to involve them in the process.”

Roger Mullin has my fullest respect and admiration for using this tool, not only with his child, but for a decision so emotional and hard to quantify. In this report (which includes his wife’s perspective and reflections), Roger Mullin makes a very strong case that a formal analysis is not at all incompatible with being sensitive, caring and effective.

Decision Trees Made Easy for the Rest of Us – Video

I have searched widely for good explanations of decision trees, and found many dry and complicated papers along the way. However, here is a video that is refreshingly simple (though not always pretty):


It provides straightforward instructions how to draw a decision tree, and how to calculate expected values with it.

If you give it a try for your own decisions, I’d love to hear about your experience.

by Ursina Teuscher (PhD), at Teuscher Decision Coaching, Portland OR

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Book Recommendation: “Decisive” by Chip and Dan Heath (2013)

Chip and Dan Heath (2013). Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. New York: Crown Business.

Book Cover: "Decisive" by Dan and Chip Heath

I was impressed with this new book by the Heath brothers, a very helpful guide to decision making. It does not offer any formal tools to evaluate options, but a process with powerful ideas that are easy to apply to any personal or business decision.

They call their approach the WRAP process, an acronym standing for (1) Widen your options, (2) Reality test your assumptions, (3) Attain some distance, and (4) Prepare to be wrong.

Here’s a sample of some ideas that I’m finding very effective with clients as well as for my own decisions:

For widening your options, they propose the “Vanishing Options Test”: what would you do if the current alternatives disappeared? This question forces us to think creatively, oftentimes bringing better solutions to mind than the ones that seemed most obvious at first.

Also, consider opportunity costs: if I didn’t do this, what else could I do with the same resources?

Always think AND, not OR. Can you follow multiple paths at once?

For attaining some distance, they suggest the simple but powerful question: “What would I tell my best friend to do in this situation?”

For preparing to be wrong, they introduce the idea of a “tripwire”: set a date or trigger for revisiting the decision. This will not only prevent you from getting stuck on a bad track, but it will give you a certain period where you will have the permission and peace of mind to fully commit to your current action plan, without tormenting yourself about whether this was a good decision or not.

Chip and Dan Heath also offer a great resources page on their website, with free cheat sheets and worksheets summarizing their process.

by Ursina Teuscher (PhD), at Teuscher Decision Coaching, Portland OR

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